I was looking through 2023, 2024 for big winners around AI theme to back test a little. Here is what I observe :- 2023: Nvidia - 233%, Vertiv - 246%, SMCI - 242%, Meta - 194%- 2024: Palantir - 340%, Vistra Corp - 261%, Nvidia - 171%, Applovin - 268%, Meta 70%, SMCI - 66%(***copied … Continue reading 5.31.2025 Thoughts (Revisiting AI Trade)
Category: Investing
5.24.2025 Tax cuts + QE to unleash animal spirits
Things that caught my attention this week 20-Year Treasury open auction to raise $16B: Yields spiked due to a lack of demand—or maybe the market is pricing in growth due to tax cuts. It’s anyone's guess. Japanese bond yields are spiking too. Time will tell, but it feels like a regime shift after 10–15 years … Continue reading 5.24.2025 Tax cuts + QE to unleash animal spirits
5.17.2025 Thoughts (V Shaped recovery)
Gold vs Dollar chart: Interesting to see gold topping while the dollar hitting the lowest levels Breadth thrust chart: Lot of chatter in twitter around Breadth thrust. Risk on: WallStreet is clearly in risk-on mood with money flowing into growth Catalyst in next 6 months are rate cuts and lower taxes. Deterrents are US need … Continue reading 5.17.2025 Thoughts (V Shaped recovery)
5.3.2025 (Stay Put or Buy more???)
I did lots of flip flopping between April 1st and now by buying/selling. The above tweet shows how masterfully one can be with allocating capital during very high VIX days and slowly trimming. I am horrible at buying fear and mostly due to my greed to buy at even lower prices. One could have simply … Continue reading 5.3.2025 (Stay Put or Buy more???)
4.26.2025 Thoughts
It is time to relook at the whole portfolio overlaying the Tariffs which could potentially impact bottom-line and topline for companies. As I mentioned earlier if the Tariffs situation is not clarified by end of April we will have to start increasing the probability of worse case scenario I painted in this post. Consumer Pullback: … Continue reading 4.26.2025 Thoughts
4.19.2025 My Investment framework (Still evolving)
I have been investing in markets pretty seriously with serious amount of money since 2018, it is a good time to sit back and reflect on my investing process/edge. My portfolio has been down 70%-80% twice (not during Covid as I was in lot of cash by chance) and both the times I made all … Continue reading 4.19.2025 My Investment framework (Still evolving)
4.12.2025 Thoughts (What Might Be Happening continued…)
*This is a sequel to 3.15.2025 Thoughts (Text from that post is in orange) Trump’s Strategy: Negotiating aggressively, aiming to boost U.S. tariff revenue from $50B to $200B while keeping markets stable. Well April 2nd Tariff announced was a jolt to the market resulting in brutal sell off on 2nd (5%), 3rd (6%). The reciprocal … Continue reading 4.12.2025 Thoughts (What Might Be Happening continued…)
3.15.2025 Thoughts
What Might Be Happening Trump’s Strategy: Negotiating aggressively, aiming to boost U.S. tariff revenue from $50B to $200B while keeping markets stable. Short Window (2-3 Months): Must act before hiring and business investments slow due to uncertainty. Economic Goals: Reduce budget deficit to 2%, shift from government-driven growth to a private-based economy. Inflation Control: Use … Continue reading 3.15.2025 Thoughts
3.8.2025 Thoughts (How AI cycle might play out)
I believe we will see the culmination of the secular bull market (2013 - 2029/30) with AI stocks peaking, potentially forming a bubble at the end. Secular Bull and Bear markets: Source: Breakpointtrading.net Concept of secular bull and bear markets, as I understand it, is that the index never closes below the 200-week moving average … Continue reading 3.8.2025 Thoughts (How AI cycle might play out)
3.1.2025 Thoughts
Portfolio: Cash - 60% Tesla - 6% Microsoft - 6% TransMedics - 4% Coinbase - 4% Block - 2% HPQ - 1.5% Aspen Aerogels - 1.5% Okta - 1% Match.com - 1% Snowflake - 1% Elf Beauty - 0.5% HIMS - 1% Shift4 payments - 1% Enovix - 1% Upstart - 1% Sofi-1% Trimmed good … Continue reading 3.1.2025 Thoughts
Uday Reddy 