Post Covid this is how the k shaped economy played out. Companies with pricing power passed through input inflation and added margin expansion on top. Workers got nominal wage increases, but not enough to offset the full cost-of-living shock. Asset owners and pricing-power businesses moved up the K, wage-dependent households moved down or sideways. Winners:Businesses … Continue reading Macro View: Covid k to AI K
Category: Investing
5.22.2026 Thoughts (Revisiting AI Trade)
I was looking through 2023, 2024 for big winners around AI theme to back test a little. Here is what I observe :- 2023: Nvidia - 233%, Vertiv - 246%, SMCI - 242%, Meta - 194%- 2024: Palantir - 340%, Vistra Corp - 261%, Nvidia - 171%, Applovin - 268%, Meta 70%, SMCI - 66%(***copied … Continue reading 5.22.2026 Thoughts (Revisiting AI Trade)
5.31.2025 Thoughts (Revisiting AI Trade)
I was looking through 2023, 2024 for big winners around AI theme to back test a little. Here is what I observe :- 2023: Nvidia - 233%, Vertiv - 246%, SMCI - 242%, Meta - 194%- 2024: Palantir - 340%, Vistra Corp - 261%, Nvidia - 171%, Applovin - 268%, Meta 70%, SMCI - 66%(***copied … Continue reading 5.31.2025 Thoughts (Revisiting AI Trade)
5.24.2025 Tax cuts + QE to unleash animal spirits
Things that caught my attention this week 20-Year Treasury open auction to raise $16B: Yields spiked due to a lack of demand—or maybe the market is pricing in growth due to tax cuts. It’s anyone's guess. Japanese bond yields are spiking too. Time will tell, but it feels like a regime shift after 10–15 years … Continue reading 5.24.2025 Tax cuts + QE to unleash animal spirits
5.17.2025 Thoughts (V Shaped recovery)
Gold vs Dollar chart: Interesting to see gold topping while the dollar hitting the lowest levels Breadth thrust chart: Lot of chatter in twitter around Breadth thrust. Risk on: WallStreet is clearly in risk-on mood with money flowing into growth Catalyst in next 6 months are rate cuts and lower taxes. Deterrents are US need … Continue reading 5.17.2025 Thoughts (V Shaped recovery)
5.3.2025 (Stay Put or Buy more???)
I did lots of flip flopping between April 1st and now by buying/selling. The above tweet shows how masterfully one can be with allocating capital during very high VIX days and slowly trimming. I am horrible at buying fear and mostly due to my greed to buy at even lower prices. One could have simply … Continue reading 5.3.2025 (Stay Put or Buy more???)
4.26.2025 Thoughts
It is time to relook at the whole portfolio overlaying the Tariffs which could potentially impact bottom-line and topline for companies. As I mentioned earlier if the Tariffs situation is not clarified by end of April we will have to start increasing the probability of worse case scenario I painted in this post. Consumer Pullback: … Continue reading 4.26.2025 Thoughts
4.19.2025 My Investment framework (Still evolving)
I have been investing in markets pretty seriously with serious amount of money since 2018, it is a good time to sit back and reflect on my investing process/edge. My portfolio has been down 70%-80% twice (not during Covid as I was in lot of cash by chance) and both the times I made all … Continue reading 4.19.2025 My Investment framework (Still evolving)
4.12.2025 Thoughts (What Might Be Happening continued…)
*This is a sequel to 3.15.2025 Thoughts (Text from that post is in orange) Trump’s Strategy: Negotiating aggressively, aiming to boost U.S. tariff revenue from $50B to $200B while keeping markets stable. Well April 2nd Tariff announced was a jolt to the market resulting in brutal sell off on 2nd (5%), 3rd (6%). The reciprocal … Continue reading 4.12.2025 Thoughts (What Might Be Happening continued…)
3.15.2025 Thoughts
What Might Be Happening Trump’s Strategy: Negotiating aggressively, aiming to boost U.S. tariff revenue from $50B to $200B while keeping markets stable. Short Window (2-3 Months): Must act before hiring and business investments slow due to uncertainty. Economic Goals: Reduce budget deficit to 2%, shift from government-driven growth to a private-based economy. Inflation Control: Use … Continue reading 3.15.2025 Thoughts
Uday Reddy 